BookSquad — Score the IPL Squad Correctly for Sharper Expected Values

👥 BookSquad's four squad scoring components for IPL powerplay analysis

Squad Component 1 — Opening pair quality (powerplay impact score for the specific openers confirmed): The opening pair is the single most important squad variable in the powerplay session. The BookSquad opening pair quality score rates the confirmed openers on three dimensions: (a) powerplay strike rate at this specific venue (not overall T20 average — venue-specific), (b) willingness to bat aggressively from ball 1 vs cautious starting approach, and (c) pace-vs-spin preference on this surface type. Impact score range: elite opening pair (e.g., Virat Kohli and Faf du Plessis at RCB during their peak, consistent 10+ runs per over in powerplay at home) = +1.5 run premium; standard opening pair (competent but not exceptional) = 0; defensive opening pair (technically strong but conservative) = −0.8 discount; makeshift opening pair (regular opener absent, non-specialist promoted) = −1.5 discount. The opening pair impact score applies to the powerplay session specifically — not to the full innings.
Squad Component 2 — Batting depth score (three-to-six position quality and availability): The second squad scoring component is batting depth: how many quality batters does the team have available to recover from early wicket loss? On a Tier 4 surface where wickets are more likely in the powerplay, a team with 8-deep batting (quality batters at positions 3–8) is less affected by the loss of 1–2 wickets than a team with a long tail (quality batters only at positions 1–5). Depth score range: full-strength 8-deep lineup = +0.8 (team can absorb wicket loss without scoring rate collapse); standard 7-deep = 0; short 6-deep (two tail-enders in positions 7–8) = −0.5; severely short (key player absent, genuine tail-enders at 6–7) = −1.0. The depth score is particularly relevant on spin-friendly surfaces where wickets are more likely early.
Squad Component 3 — Key player availability flag (impact batter or impact bowler absent/present): The third component is the binary flag for key player availability: is a specific high-impact player present in or absent from today's XI? Key players whose absence materially affects the powerplay expected score: openers and aggressive number-3 batters (absence reduces powerplay scoring rate by 1.5–2.5 runs if the replacement is significantly weaker); death-over power hitters at position 5–6 (absence reduces middle-over and death-over scores but has limited powerplay effect). The key player flag applies a specific run adjustment when the impact is direct and material: "Rohit Sharma absent from Mumbai XI, replaced by lower-ranked opener = −1.5 powerplay adjustment."
Squad Component 4 — Surface-specific lineup composition (the final squad score calibration for today's surface type): The fourth component is the surface-specific calibration: does today's confirmed XI include the right players for this specific surface? Chepauk Tier 4 with a team that has included only pace bowlers (reducing spin bowling threat) is analytically different from the same team with a world-class spinner in the attack — even when the batting lineups are identical. The surface-specific lineup composition score: optimal surface match (lineup includes 2+ quality spinners for a turning pitch, batting lineup includes proven players on slow surfaces) = +0.5; standard surface match = 0; surface mismatch (pace-heavy team on a turning pitch, or power-hitter heavy lineup on a Tier 5 ultra-slow surface) = −0.8.